CPEC and Its Security Implications

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is rapidly taking shape, and efforts to halt its progress through diplomatic or other means have proven ineffective. Past objections regarding its route through Pakistan-administered Kashmir have had little impact, and while we can continue voicing our concerns, it is crucial to recognize the potential threats it poses.

 

Underestimating the strategic advantages CPEC offers to both China and Pakistan could lead to unforeseen consequences for India. Instead, we should focus on understanding its implications and developing countermeasures within our capacity. CPEC represents a sophisticated economic and military strategy devised by China and fully embraced by Pakistan. While many have highlighted the financial strains it may impose on Pakistan, the military benefits it confers—particularly in relation to India—far outweigh these economic challenges.

 

China has successfully engaged India's neighbouring countries economically and is now extending its influence into military cooperation. With CPEC's implementation, China is effectively fortifying Pakistan along its borders with India, enabling potential military operations under the guise of economic development. This corridor is not solely an economic initiative; it is a strategic military asset that could significantly bolster Pakistan's military capabilities.

 

In light of these developments, India must reevaluate its strategies in anticipation of future hostilities with Pakistan. Strengthening ties with Russia, potentially through a military pact, may be a vital component of our counter-strategy. However, we must consider the limitations of Russia's willingness to support us, especially if it views CPEC as a viable trade route. Additionally, engaging the United States in this strategic conversation is essential for bolstering our position.

 

It is concerning that the Indian government might be underestimating the CPEC threat for political reasons, reminiscent of the 1987 scenario when the Rajiv Gandhi administration overlooked the burgeoning terrorism in Kashmir despite substantial evidence. Political expediency often leads to denial, and it appears history may be repeating itself. The current government seems uncertain about how to formulate an effective policy regarding Kashmir.

 

While Pakistan's economy is in dire straits, any short-term financial assistance from China will likely be aimed at enhancing military capabilities rather than fostering genuine economic growth. As long as Pakistan remains a haven for terrorism, no nation will engage in a meaningful economic partnership with it. The focus of Chinese investment in Pakistan appears to be military collaboration, which poses significant risks to India's security.

 

The notion that CPEC could transform Pakistan into a hub akin to Dubai or Hong Kong seems implausible; its true intent is to create a strategic military advantage for both China and Pakistan. The economic benefits are secondary to this primary goal.

 

From a defence standpoint, CPEC is strategically vital for Pakistan. However, broader advantages are limited due to the ongoing instability within the country, which hampers foreign investment.

 

In conclusion, India should consider a range of countermeasures, including neutralizing designated terrorists operating from Pakistan, abrogation of the Indus Water Treaty, designating Pakistan a terrorist state, put effective measures in place to prevent misuse of Kartarpur corridor by ISI in furtherance of their K2 agenda, ensuring non-revival of its Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) status already revoked in 2019, implementing visa restrictions, and curtailing trade, social and cultural exchanges. These steps could help mitigate the risks posed by CPEC and reinforce our national interests. It’s time to consolidate our views and communicate them effectively to the Prime Minister's Office and the Ministry of Home Affairs, ensuring that we are prepared to face this emerging threat.